Rough Seas Ahead

Navigating yet more change in 2026

By Kevin Jolley

"We trained hard, but it seemed that every time we were beginning to form up into teams we would be reorganized. Presumably the plans for our employment were being changed. I was to learn later in life that, perhaps because we are so good at organizing, we tend as a nation to meet any new situation by reorganizing; and a wonderful method it can be for creating the illusion of progress while producing confusion, inefficiency, and demoralization. During our reorganizations, several commanding officers were tried out on us, which added to the discontinuity."

Charlton Ogburn Jr
Excerpt from The Marauders (1959)

The announcement of the new Defence Delivery Agency in early December has stirred up a plethora of opinions about the impending reorganisation. The above quote has been used several times; interestingly attributed to different people each time...

Rather than joining the pile-on and shouting ‘Long Live DMO’ from the hilltops, we thought that we would offer some perspectives on the opportunity that 2026 presents, and some further ideas that we have been mulling for some time.

These ideas were generated whilst re-developing the One Defence Capability System post the Defence Strategic Review. In 2025, the Lumio team concluded three and a half years spent supporting the ODCS redesign, along with the Defence Capability Policy and other adjacent activities.

Spending several months away from the problem set has enabled us to be relatively objective about these recommendations. In that time, some may have been addressed. We were also not privy to some conversations around certain new ODCS characteristics that have resulted, for particular reasons, in the design opportunities we have identified.

We have collated our thoughts into the five A’s;

Alignment
Assessment
Approvals
Assurance
And... innovation.

Rather than lull you into a nap deeper than forty winks post-Christmas lunch, we’ve curated a small selection of our recommendations. The others are more detailed than this paper can do justice or are not suitable to present in this medium.

ALIGNMENT
The priority recommendation for alignment would be to review the timing of Government-level publications, with the timing of new capability assessment processes.

Early drafts of the NDS and IIP should directly inform subsequent capability assessment within a shorter timeframe, enabling alignment with expectations and fiscal realities before the NDS and IIP are made public.

This would enable the first iteration of the capability assessments to be sufficiently prepared and executed in the same calendar year that the NDS and IIP are published.

ASSESSMENTS
In implementing key DSR recommendation around centre-led acquisition, the most critical aspect of the assessment stage that stands out, is the question around capability accountability.

Should Capability Managers accept accountability for capabilities determined by the strategic centre, with potentially limited involvement from Service and Group representatives? For example, who is accountable and responsible for identifying and delivering spiral upgrades once capabilities have been brought into service.

Furthermore, consideration should be given to capability acquisition documentation. This will enable it to capture and direct the sheer volume of information that it has replaced from the multitude of previous program and project level documents.

APPROVALS
Approval documentation should match the minimum requirements and needs of the approval authority. This would manifest in Defence submissions having clear direction on detail structure, length and costings.

Given the pre-determined structure of submissions themselves, there are opportunities within the Attachments framework to develop Defence-specific approaches that can standardise and improve coherency at Cabinet level.

ASSURANCE
Noting Parliament’s increasing desire for greater transparency and assurance over Defence programs and projects, Defence should proactively build systems and frameworks that enable enterprise level confidence in capability match to need, project delivery, appropriately skilled workforce, and cost.

Systems and processes should be designed with assurance in mind to minimise activities later in the process. Lower-level project reporting should seamlessly roll up into program and portfolio reporting without losing the ability to drill back down into the detail. This will provide assurance at every level.

AND...INNOVATION
Innovation needs a well-resourced accountable authority who is empowered to pursue innovation with funding in alignment with centre direction, and to streamline promising prospects through to Group and Service-led innovation mechanisms and projects.

VCDF could be empowered to take this role with separate innovation funding enabling innovative capabilities the best chance for sponsorship and funding, particularly in early development stages, ensuring that priorities are aligned and duplication of effort is minimised.

There are many avenues that the Department could undertake to improve speed to capability for the war-fighter.

Whatever the Department chooses to do, maintaining a whole-of-enterprise view is critical to avoiding the pitfalls of previously unwieldy structures and activities.